Grain Market Commentary
IFA analysis of the current grain market trends and developments and how they affect the Irish market and Irish farmers.
Irish merchants are actively canvassing for green grain supplies due limited availability of grain and a reduction in projected yields.
Prices for green barley at between 13% -16% moisture are being quoted at €190 per tonne (ex VAT).
Oats between 13% -16% moisture are being quoted at €180/t (ex VAT).
This mirrors the global picture where indications continue to point to a reduced global grain output in 2018.
World cereal production prospects trimmed and stocks heading sharply lower in 2018/19
Latest indications from the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) continue to point to a reduced global cereal output in 2018. This will lead to negative prospects for the cereal supply outlook for the forthcoming 2018/19 marketing season.
According to the International Grains Council latest grain market report, the total grains supply and demand outlook for 2018/19 has tightened. A 12m t cut for world grains production is due to adverse weather conditions in the EU and Russia and the EU, which has damaged prospects for barley, wheat and maize. Although global consumption is reduced, projected carryover stocks are down by 12m t m/m, with the year-on-year decline now seen at 54m, including a drop of 34m in the major exporters.
Total Grains Supply & Demand Summary – figures in millions of tonnes (m t)
|Major exporters *||150||181||173||139||-19.8%|
(*Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, USA)
Total grains production in 2018/19 is expected to be a three-year low, as bigger outturns of maize and sorghum only partially compensate for poorer wheat and barley crops. Although total supply will be smaller, consumption is seen reaching a third successive record, with the largest gains for food and industrial uses.
(Source: International Grains Council, Grain Market Report GMR 489 2nd July 2018)